Nifty falls 2.4% as crude crosses $117: five things that will move markets next week

Oil prices, the US Fed's policy meeting, foreign selling, Q2 results and the Nifty's 22,300 support level will decide whether the sell-off deepens.

Indian shares had a rough week. The Nifty 50 fell 2.36% and the Sensex about 2.15%, wiping out two weeks of gains, as high oil prices, foreign selling and tension in the Middle East hit sentiment, The Economic Times reported. Midcap and smallcap stocks fell harder; IT shares held up better than most.

Analysts quoted by ET say five things will decide where markets go next week.

1. Crude oil and the Middle East

Brent crude rose past $117 a barrel, and US WTI crude went above $100. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said any further disruption involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz or regional energy infrastructure could push up India's import bill, inflation and company costs.

Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, founder of HST Wealth, said how long prices stay high will decide whether the damage spreads to household spending. "Any de-escalation could generate a sharp relief move, but a small decline from these elevated levels would provide only marginal comfort," he said.

2. The US Federal Reserve

The Fed meets on October 27–28 and is widely expected to hold rates. Hariselvan said its guidance on inflation would matter more than the decision itself: a hawkish tone could lift US bond yields and the dollar, keeping foreign money away from markets like India.

3. Foreign selling and the Jio IPO

Foreign investors pulled out about ₹51,465 crore in October, while domestic institutions bought about ₹59,110 crore, according to Ponmudi. Ravi Singh, chief research officer at Master Capital Services, said the huge Jio Platforms IPO had also drawn money away from shares already listed, leaving the indices more exposed to selling.

4. Industrial data and Q2 results

Industrial production figures and July–September company results will show whether business can withstand high energy costs. Weak results from some lenders have already hit bank shares, and analysts will watch IT, auto and consumer companies for signs of demand.

5. Key Nifty levels

Singh said the Nifty's immediate support is near 22,300; a clear break below could take it towards 22,000. Resistance lies at 22,850–22,900, and while the index stays below that, his view remains "sell on rise". Hariselvan said a sustained move above 22,800 could open the way to 23,000–23,150.

This article reports analysts' views and is not investment advice.

This story is from The Economic Times and has not been edited by Tark Samvad staff beyond the headline.